Pressure on household incomes is weakening demand, although EV sales are gaining momentum
Automotive output is enjoying a surge this year and is expected to increase 10.6% by the end of 2023. Motor vehicle and parts production accelerated during the first half of the year, largely due to an easing of the supply chain disruptions and working through the backlogs of orders.
However, we expect production growth to slow to 2% in 2024, as weaker demand takes hold of the industry, particularly in advanced economies. Persistently high interest rates are weighing on automotive production and sales, as household incomes remain under pressure and financing has become more costly. In addition, once the backlogs of orders are worked through, there will be lower demand for automotive production in 2024 and 2025. Downside risks for the sector are tenaciously high inflation, while component shortages could also add strain to automotive supply chains.
We expect global hybrid and electric vehicle (EV) sales to account for 59% of global light vehicle sales by 2030, up from 10% in 2020. The US Inflation Reduction Act will support EV sales in the US, while in Europe the shift towards electrification is accelerating. In China, the EV transition maintains a strong momentum, and Chinese EV exports are accelerating.